<div dir="ltr"><div>Another thing to keep in mind, because of the limited number of test kits at this time they are testing those who are showing symptoms and are within the vulnerable group. With that there are probably many more infected that show no or mild symptoms that would not be treated by medical personnel thus not added to the overall count which skew the numbers to a higher mortality rate, just like they see with the flu.</div><div><br></div><div>Ernest Netter</div><div>KI7JPC<br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 6:24 AM Scott Sande <<a href="mailto:desertsande@gmail.com">desertsande@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Calibri";color:rgb(0,0,0)">
<div>Hi Jeff;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is Scott Sande KG7VEU</div>
<div>Redmond OR </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I saw this <span id="gmail-m_982569681075539930ember143"><a id="gmail-m_982569681075539930ember144">Cumulative Confirmed Cases</a> of 
</span>Coronavirus COVID-19 chart and it represents a moment in time.  (See 
below)</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On 3/17/2020 the mortality 
rate                
8,008   =      <font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)">3.97%</font></div>
<div>is 
Worldwide                                           
201,672       100.00</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><font size="4">Jeff I was thinking about the numbers when it hit me that this 
“Slice” in time is incomplete.</font></div>
<div> </div>
<div>That out of 201,672 confirmed cases minus the 8,008 deaths, minus the 
82,071 recovered there are <font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)">111,593 
cases</font></div>
<div>that the outcome is not yet known???   So should you figure that 
3.97% of the 111,593 will die?  That’s another 4,403 deaths. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I’m not sure about this thinking... What is the correct way is to evaluate 
the math?  What do you think?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you add 4,403 to the 8,008 = 12,438 deaths <img style="border-style: none;" alt="Sad smile" src="cid:170ee12be671bd6e11e1">  
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On 3/17/2020  <u>TRUE Mortality 
Rate</u>               
12,438   =     <font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)"><font size="4">6.15</font></font><font style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)" size="4">%</font></div>
<div><font>of the Worldwide</font> 
cases                                 
201,672       100.00</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That’s  61.5 times more deadly than the FLU..</div>
<div> </div>
<div><font size="4">I pray these numbers are wrong and that there’s a vaccine in 
trials somewhere that will save the 111,593 undecided cases.</font> </div>
<div><font size="4"></font> </div>
<div>Let me know what you think??</div>
<div><font size="4"></font> </div>
<div>Be safe.. 73’s</div>
<div><font size="4"></font> </div>
<div><font size="4">Scott</font></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a title="https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-200000-cases-death-toll-8000-johns-hopkins" href="https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-200000-cases-death-toll-8000-johns-hopkins" target="_blank">https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-200000-cases-death-toll-8000-johns-hopkins</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img title="image" style="border-color: currentcolor; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; background-image: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;" alt="image" src="cid:170ee12be67ea8387252" width="593" height="631" border="0"></div>
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<div style="background:rgb(245,245,245) none repeat scroll 0% 0%">
<div><b>From:</b> <a title="tnetcenter@gmail.com">Jeff 
Moore</a> </div>
<div><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, March 18, 2020 1:42 AM</div>
<div><b>To:</b> <a title="HiDARG-Members@hidarg.org">HiDARG Members list</a> 
</div>
<div><b>Subject:</b> [HiDARG-MEMBERS] Wuhan Virus resources</div></div></div>
<div> </div></div>
<div style="font-size:small;text-decoration:none;font-family:"Calibri";font-weight:normal;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-style:normal;display:inline">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>For those of you that are interested, here's Oregon's COVID-19 
information:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Pages/emerging-respiratory-infections.aspx" target="_blank">https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Pages/emerging-respiratory-infections.aspx</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>So far, Deschutes County has 6 cases and Crook and Jefferson aren't 
reporting any cases.  Let's hope it stays that way!!!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My math has put the Fatality Rate at between 2.4 and 3.7%!  Hopefully, 
that is high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take care everyone!  And 7   3</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Jeff Moore  --  KE7ACY</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div></div>
<p>
</p><hr>
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</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div>Thank you,</div><div><br></div><div>Ernest Netter</div><div>KI7JPC</div><div><br></div></div></div>