[HiDARG-MEMBERS] Wuhan Virus resources

[Ernest Netter]

Another thing to keep in mind, because of the limited number of test kits
at this time they are testing those who are showing symptoms and are within
the vulnerable group. With that there are probably many more infected that
show no or mild symptoms that would not be treated by medical personnel
thus not added to the overall count which skew the numbers to a higher
mortality rate, just like they see with the flu.

Ernest Netter
KI7JPC

On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 6:24 AM Scott Sande <desertsande at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi Jeff;
>
> This is Scott Sande KG7VEU
> Redmond OR
>
> I saw this Cumulative Confirmed Cases of Coronavirus COVID-19 chart and
> it represents a moment in time.  (See below)
>
> On 3/17/2020 the mortality rate                8,008   =      3.97%
> is Worldwide                                           201,672       100.00
>
>
> Jeff I was thinking about the numbers when it hit me that this “Slice” in
> time is incomplete.
>
> That out of 201,672 confirmed cases minus the 8,008 deaths, minus the
> 82,071 recovered there are 111,593 cases
> that the outcome is not yet known???   So should you figure that 3.97% of
> the 111,593 will die?  That’s another 4,403 deaths.
>
> I’m not sure about this thinking... What is the correct way is to evaluate
> the math?  What do you think?
>
> If you add 4,403 to the 8,008 = 12,438 deaths [image: Sad smile]
>
> On 3/17/2020  *TRUE Mortality Rate*               12,438   =     6.15%
> of the Worldwide cases                                 201,672
> 100.00
>
> That’s  61.5 times more deadly than the FLU..
>
> I pray these numbers are wrong and that there’s a vaccine in trials
> somewhere that will save the 111,593 undecided cases.
>
> Let me know what you think??
>
> Be safe.. 73’s
>
> Scott
>
>
>
>
> https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-200000-cases-death-toll-8000-johns-hopkins
>
> [image: image]
>
> *From:* Jeff Moore
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 18, 2020 1:42 AM
> *To:* HiDARG Members list
> *Subject:* [HiDARG-MEMBERS] Wuhan Virus resources
>
> For those of you that are interested, here's Oregon's COVID-19 information:
>
>
> https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Pages/emerging-respiratory-infections.aspx
>
> So far, Deschutes County has 6 cases and Crook and Jefferson aren't
> reporting any cases.  Let's hope it stays that way!!!
>
> My math has put the Fatality Rate at between 2.4 and 3.7%!  Hopefully,
> that is high.
>
> Take care everyone!  And 7   3
>
> Jeff Moore  --  KE7ACY
>
>
>
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-- 
Thank you,

Ernest Netter
KI7JPC
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